We were looking at the numbers reported by Moderna and Pfizer for their COVID-19 vaccines, and we are perplexed.
Are you?
Take a look.
Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine trial
98.98% of those who got the placebo did NOT get symptomatic COVID-19
The numbers were 21,566 out of 21,728.
99.96% of those who got the vaccine did NOT get symptomatic COVID-19.
The numbers were 21,712 out of 21,720
Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine trial
98.78% who got the placebo also did NOT get symptomatic Covid.
The numbers were 15,025 out of 15,210.
99.92% of those who got the vaccine did NOT get symptomatic Covid.The numbers were 15,199 out of 15,210
Totaling both trials:
The reduction of risk was defined in these studies as preventing symptomatic COVID-
99.06% of those who got placebos did not get symptomatic COVID-19.
The numbers were 36,591 out of 36,938
99.94% of those who got either vaccine did NOT get symptomatic Covid.The numbers were 36,911 out of 36,930.
So, 99+% of the entire test populations did not get symptomatic COVID-19, WHETHER OR NOT THEY WERE VACCINATED.
The difference between getting vaccinated and not getting vaccinated was ultimately, for this population, less than 1%.
We still do not know if the vaccine either prevents asymptomatic infection — or encourages it.
We also do not know how many people in each group (vaccinated or not) were EXPOSED to COVID-19 during the trials.
Our question:
How do we accurately weigh the risks and benefits of the vaccine when it seems that 99% of the test population was unaffected by the virus, whether they were vaccinated or not?
If this was not an accurate representation of how the vaccine would perform in “real life,” then how accurate is the reported 94% efficacy, especially given the unknowns of exposure and asymptomatic transmission?
Sources:
Pfizer’s results: https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-publication-results-landmark
Moderna’s results: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389